National League MVP Race

Analysis

A new horse has joined the thoroughbreds currently in the race for National League MVP.

Believe it or…well, just believe it.

At the trading deadline just over a month ago, the contest for the most valuable player consisted of perennial all-star and last year's MVP, Albert Pujols, and Carlos Beltran, the switch hitting centerfielder of the National League East leading New York Mets.

But a lot can change in a month.

For instance, Ryan Howard, the slugging first baseman for the Philadelphia Phillies, in just his first full season, has hit 21 home runs and 51 RBIs in 38 games since the trading deadline to take a commanding lead of both categories in the Major League.

Howard, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year, is avoiding the sophomore slump that plagues so many young hitters. In fact, he is also setting records in doing so. Two weeks ago, Howard hit his 49th homer of the season, surpassing Phillies' Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt as Philadephia's single season home run champion.

Now, as the playoff race begins to heat up, the Phillies find themselves right in the thick of things, despite jettisoning several players at the July 31 trade deadline, a move which signifies that a team has thrown in the towel for the remainder of the season.

Since then, the Phillies have caught fire, going 23-15 and pulling themselves to within reach of the National League wild card, largely due in part to the efforts of Howard, who needed to pick up a great deal of the slack that resulted from the trades of three starting players.

At the current pace, Howard stands to lead the league in homeruns and RBIs, while still maintaining a batting average of over .300. Despite those numbers, the MVP race is far from over.

While the Phillies have not guaranteed themselves a postseason bid, Howard's chances may be hurt a because voters tend to lean toward players who are on a playoff bound team.

The MVP award was designed to honor the best overall player in each league, and nowhere does it state that the recipient has to be part of the playoffs; however, it is usually the case.

The most recent exception was in 2003, when Alex Rodriguez won the American League MVP while he was with the last place Texas Rangers. With the voters' tendancies in mind, I'll start with the most obvious choice: St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols.

Pujols started the season with a bang by belting 25 homeruns in just the first two months, making it a foregone conclusion that he was well on his way to capturing his second MVP award in as many seasons. Unfortunately, injuries sidelined the slugger for most of June, causing him to lose steam in what could have been a record breaking season. He has since bounced back, hitting .320 with 15 homeruns and 30 RBIs since the All-Star break, while helping the Cardinals to a comfortable lead in the National League central division.

The last player in the MVP race is Carlos Beltran, who is rebounding nicely from a tumultuous first season with the Mets. Beltran, whose numbers have improved considerably, led the MVP talks for most of the season, partially due to his team-leading 25 homeruns and 68 RBIs before the All-Star break, and also because the Mets have a stranglehold on the National League East, a division they led since the beginning of the season.

Both Pujols and Beltran have put up great numbers, but more to the point, what actually defines value?

In the literal sense, the value of a player would be the production they provide based on their salary.

If that was the case, Howard, who makes just enough in one season to purchase a Ferrari, would literally provide more bang for your buck, as opposed to the likes of Beltran, who stands to make just over $13 million in 2006.

However, the voters don't factor salary into their decision making, but rather they look at the raw statistics, as well as other intangibles that players bring to the table, such as leadership and heart.

One important factor is how they perform relative to the other players on the team. Beltran is in the middle of one of the most prolific lineups in the National League, an offense which has had several players mentioned in MVP talks this season.

Howard and Pujols, while certainly not playing amongst slouches, are leading their teams in batting average, home runs, and RBIs, and are virtually alone in MVP talks among their teammates.

Perhaps the most important factor is what they do in the last weeks of the season, when each victory is important. A player could have a tremendous year, but a poor September could cost them the award. On the flip side, a strong September resonates within the voters' minds, especially if that effort results in a playoff berth.

Now the question remains: Who will the voters choose?

Will they vote for the young phenom, who is defying the odds in his young career; will they vote for the player who is having a breakout year while his team is coasting to the playoffs; or will they vote for the reigning MVP, a slugger who is well on his way to filling the record books?

Gentlemen, with less than four weeks left, the season starts now.